Week 1 Fantasy Overachievers

Here’s a look at some of the players who most outscore their projected fantasy points in week 1 of the 2026 season. The projections are from Fantasypros.com and all the scores are based on PPR scoring.

The Injury Effect

Carson Wentz scoring 17.2 vs 0.7 projected (+16.8) - We all had our own predictions about how Kyler Murray would perform with the Minnesota Vikings this season, but I dare say none of us predicted he’d go down in the second series. The ever present never celebrated Carson Wentz came in and led the team to a victory against a division opponent. I doubt anyone is picking him up in their fantasy league, but it must be nice to have a backup that isn’t a complete disaster.

The Flash in the Pan

[Note: I have a vivid memory from high school of my PE teacher calling the Foo Fighters a flash in the pan. He was wrong, and I freely admit that I may be wrong here, but these are players that seem unlikely to continue to exceed expectations.]

David Montgomery scoring 28.9 vs 13.4 projected (+15.5) - We always say that teams with solid defenses and skill players are “just a quarterback away”, but coming into this season the Texans were more “just a running back away.” so the acquisition of Montgomery was a hopeful one. And after the first week, it looks like it paid off. Can this continue, or was this score just because it was against the Bills, who had a bottom ten rush defense last season?

Bryce Young scoring 31.4 vs 16.5 projected (+15.0) & Jalen Coker scoring 33.8 vs 9.9 projected (+23.9) - It’s going to take more than going off against the Bears defense to convince people that the Panthers offense should be taken seriously. Unfair? Maybe. But that’s just the way it is. That said, these were two very impressive performances in week 1. Coker, had the highest point differential vs projections of any player.

Isaiah Likely scoring 27.8 vs 10.2 projected (+17.6) - I do hope I’m wrong about this and Likely continues this production, because I’ve always liked the guy (no pun intended) but we’ve seen him start the season strong before only to fade back into relative obscurity. The difference is, he had Mark Andrews to contend with in Baltimore and in NY he doesn’t really have anyone so maybe he’ll keep scoring like this, but I still think it’s not super likely (pun absolutely intended).

The Debutante Ball

These players are coming out to the world and oh aren’t they beautiful?

Caleb Williams scoring 37.3 vs 18.1 projected (+19.2) & D’Andre Swift scoring 32.4 vs 13.5 projected (+18.9) - Coming into the season Ben Johnson announced his intention to break the scoring record, Well, after scoring 59 points against the Panthers that goal doesn’t seem so out of reach. Perhaps last season was Caleb Williams’ coming out party and Swift is a veteran who has been around the block, but this score certainly announced these players as real fantasy contenders this season (unfortunately that’s not true for all the Bears skill players: spoiler alert for next post).

Ashton Jeanty scoring 32.7 vs 14.9 projected (+17.8) - Perhaps Jeanty should go in the flash in the pan category considering this performance was against the young and inexperienced Miami Dolphins defense, but this is the exact kind of performance we’ve been waiting for from him. We’ve always known he was capable of this, the question was if the Raiders would ever put him in a situation to do it. Well, for now, it seems they have. We’ll see if it holds up against stronger opponents.

Christian Watson scoring 33.7 vs 12.0 projected (+20.7) - Last season, trying to pick which Green Bay receiver would go off was like playing a game of whack-a-mole. But now, it seems like the #1 spot is Watson’s to lose. I think staying healthy is his only real question mark at this point.

“No duh’ We should have seen this coming

Josh Allen scoring 35.7 vs 18.8 projected (+16.8) - What are we doing here? This is Josh Fucking Allen we’re talking about. Though, to be fair, this was against the Houston defense, with whom he has struggled against in the past. Well not anymore apparently. Is this a sign that Allen has taken yet another leap forward or has Houston’s defense taken a step back?

Kenneth Walker III scoring 34.1 vs 14.6 projected (+19.5) - The Superbowl MVP going to the fucking Chiefs, another team that has for years been “just a running back away”? Does the word “duh” mean anything to you? The only knock against Walker is that he’s historically been injury prone… but sometimes I think we forget that injury prone and injured are not the same thing. And, for week 1 at least, Walker was not injured. And he dominated.

Derrick Henry scoring 35.3 vs 15.7 projected (+20.7) - Derrick Henry is the Breaking Bad “He can’t keep getting away with this!” meme, but in a good way? I’m fine with him getting away with this. He’s incredible and showing no signs of slowing down. When does the GOAT talk start with him? Because I’m ready to start it if noone else wants to.