Week 1 Confidence Picks

The NFL is back! Every season I do a confidence pool in which we not only pick the winner of each game but rank our confidence in each pick from 1 to 16 (or 3 to 16 if four teams are on bye… you get it). Anyway, I suck at it. So I’m trying something new this year. I’m going to do my initial picks then right out my reasoning for each one. Then maybe the process of writing it out will make things more clear. Or not, who knows.

1 Point: Jets @ Titans

Why only one point?

I don’t trust either of these teams and I could see either team winning. I’m giving it to the Jets mostly because they actually have a pretty good roster, particularly on offense. Who knows, maybe Geno can turn them around. I need a matchup to be in the one spot and this one is as good as any.

2 Points: 49ers @ Rams (in Australia)

Only 2 points on the superbowl favorite?

The 49ers flew to Australia last week. The Rams are flying in the day before and leaving after. This will be an interesting look at what the best strategy for these long distance games could be. I’m giving the Rams the edge here not because I think their strategy is better, but only because the 49ers are so injured. I don’t feel great about it though.

3 Points: Bills @ Texans

The Texans owned the Bills last year, getting 8 sacks on them. Why isn’t this higher?

I will rarely, if ever, put down a lot of points against the Bills. That said, the Texans are just a bad matchup for them and I would be surprised if the Bills left Houston with a W. The x-factor, I think, will be Stroud. Which Stroud are we getting? The rookie sensation or the guy who defected to the Patriots in the middle of a playoff game. I trust the Texans defense to hold Josh Allen in check, but can their offense take advantage?

4 Points: Packers @ Vikings

Do you actually think Kyler Murray will work in Minnesota?

Yes, I do. I think O’Connell is a great coach and will make this offense work. Sure, they bombed with J.J. McCarthy last season, but it was hardly surprising to anyone who was paying attention. McCarthy had barely any starts under his belt, meanwhile we’ve see Murray be effective. O’Connell can work with that (at least until GTA 6 drops).

5 Points: Broncos @ Chiefs

Aren’t you afraid you’re living in the past?

Yes, yes I am. I’ve actually waffled on this pick back and forth more than once but I think I’ve settled on respecting the Chiefs homefield advantage and trusting in Mahomes.

6 Points: Patriots @ Seahawks

Did you watch the Superbowl at all?

Of course I did and I also think the Seahawks are a better team, but I also think that Vrabel and McDaniels have been scheming for this game all summer and with their new toy in AJ Brown plan to shock the world. There is sneaky upset potential here. But, of course, it’s only 6 points. It’s not like I’m staking my house on it or anything.

7 Points: Dolphins @ Raiders

You’re such a fucking homer

First of all, that wasn’t a question and second of all, I am fully prepared for this to be the most amount of points I put on the Dolphins, or even pick them to win, all season. But it’s week one and anything can happen. I’m not as convinced that the Dolphins are tanking as the rest of the world seems to be. Sure, they did a full roster reset and have more dead cap than the 2007 NFL salary cap in its entirety… wait, what was I saying? Oh yeah, I can envision a world in which the rushing combo of Willis and Achane plus the emergence of rookie wide receivers Bell and Douglas shock the Raiders. Plus, even though Ashton Jeanty is scheduled to play, he’s still dealing with an ankle sprain. So… there’s a chance.

8 Points: Cowboys @ Giants

You don’t actually believe in the Giants, do you?

I’m not sure. No… I don’t think I do… well, maybe. If Dart and Skattebo and Nabers can all be on the field at the same time for most of the season, and that defense can live up to the hype? Then yes I do. But not right now. In fact, I expect this number to rise before Sunday. 8 points seems too low to me. But I also have a long standing rule of not putting too many points on division games.

9 Points: Commanders @ Eagles

You don’t actually believe in the Commanders, do you?

Actually, I kind of do. They’ve been more successful more recently than the Giants at least… but with their injuries on the OL already, it’s hard to believe in them too much. Perhaps I should put more points on the Eagles, but, again, division games can be weird. Especially in week 1.

10 Points: Buccaneers @ Bengals

What are the chances the Bengals defense is any better this season?

If Ebuka were healthy, this number would be lower. Heck, I might even pick the Bucs. But, he’s not. But you know who is? Joe Burrow (for now). And as long as he is, this team will put up points.

11 Points: Bears @ Panthers

You do realize both these teams won their divisions last year, right?

Yeah, and I actually am higher on the Panthers this season than most but I think the Bears are going to win this one. I may drop the points… in fact, I think by the time I finish writing this, I’ll swap it with the Cowboys or Eagles… but I still think the Bears will win.

12 Points: Falcons @ Steelers

Aaron Rodgers for 12 points? Really?

If you know me at all, then you know I spent several years defending Tua. I was never “Tuanon” but I didn’t not agree with them. But those days are over. I feel bad for the guy because relentless injuries stole the potential that was clearly on display in Alabama… but he is simply cooked. Which is why, when the Falcons announced that he will be starting this game, I immediately bumped these points up. I may even bump them up more.

13 Points: Ravens @ Colts

Remember how good the Colts were in the first half of last season?

Of course I do… they destroyed my Dolphins in week one and dashed any hopes for the 2025 season (much like the Raiders will likely do this season)... but I also remember how good the Ravens are when Lamar is healthy. And he’s healthy…. Which is more than I can say for Daniel Jones.

14 Points: Browns @ Jaguars

Him?

This is why I do this exercise because I’m looking at the 14 points on the Jags and it makes me queasy. Sure, they ended the season strong, and the Browns QB situation is a joke and the Browns lost their best defensive player and… okay I feel less queasy. Still, I think these points might drop. I’ll probably swap this pick with the Steelers pick at the very least if only because I like every name on the Browns offense that isn’t the QB.

15 Points: Saints @ Lions

But what if the Saints surprise everyone this season?

Actually, I think they might. In fact, I think they are a sneaky contender for the division who will win more games than people think. But not this week. I love the Lions this year. I think they are going to win a lot of games, starting with this one.

16 Points: Cardinals @ Chargers

But it’s the Chargers question?

I am all in on the Chargers this season because of Mike Motherfucking McDaniel. I think he’s going to open this offense right up. And, as a former Tua defender, it pains me to say: Justin Herbert is really good. So yeah. I think the Chargers are going to be great. Plus it’s the Cardinals… who seem like they want that number one pick so… yeah. Go Chargers.